By now, you’ve no doubt seen the videos.
Young folks out crowding the beaches celebrating spring break. Or adults gathering in bars and restaurants shoulder to shoulder despite the threat of the coronavirus.
You may have even thought to yourself, “What’s the big deal? The numbers aren’t that high. Maybe I should stop hiding at home too.”
Well, the truth is, when it comes to COVID-19, the devil is in the lack of details.
Let’s start with the facts we DO know. If you dive into the numbers, you’ll find the coronavirus appears to have a moderate rate of contagiousness and around three percent fatality rate.
That doesn’t sound SO bad, right? Here’s the trouble.
You won’t hear them talking about this on the nightly news, but what those numbers DON’T give us is the whole picture. They don’t account for something called “asymptomatic” cases.
What does that mean? Well, it simply refers to folks who are walking around out there who DO have COVID-19, but DON’T have any symptoms.
They feel fine. And like those people, we’ve seen hanging out on the beach or in the bars they certainly don’t mean any harm.
But they’re carriers of the virus. And they can give it to other folks just like someone who is quite clearly ill.
The devil is in the lack of details with COVID-19
That means those stats I just gave you earlier are likely very misleading.
And because there are a limited number of testing kits to go around, these folks may NEVER be found. But rest assured they ARE out there.
How do we know? Well, for starters, there’s the tragic case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
If you recall, the coronavirus spread like wildfire on the massive ship. It was so bad that country after country refused to let the ship in for a long time until it finally was allowed to dock off the coast of Japan.
We all followed that story on the news. But what they never told you was what REALLY happened on that floating petri dish.
Naturally, everyone on the ship was tested since there were known cases on board. And of the 634 confirmed cases of COVID-19 anywhere from 16.1 to a staggering 50.5 percent of folks were asymptomatic.
It’s a rolling number depending on when they were tested. But according to one study, the final percentage of folks on the ship who had the virus but no symptoms was around 17.9 percent.*
That ill-fated cruise ship isn’t the only evidence of people without symptoms having the disease. Recently, Iceland began rolling out extensive testing on its citizens. Around 50 percent of the folks who have tested positive had NO symptoms.
And just last week in a group flying into Germany seven people tested positive for COVID-19. But four of those seven were asymptomatic.
Yet the viral load… the amount of virus in the secretions… was HIGHER in the folks who felt fine than the three people who were showing symptoms. Which means those WITHOUT symptoms were more likely to spread the disease.
In other words, these are the very people we’ve been talking about who feel healthy but can spread the virus. And their numbers are likely FAR higher than the stats we’re being fed on social media and the news. In fact, a study found that spreading the virus BEFORE you are showing symptoms may be the rule rather than the exception.
“Social distancing” could help reduce coronavirus risk
So this coronavirus may not have a “moderate” rate of transmission after all. It could be much higher. But you’d only know that if you waded through some really dense, jargon-filled studies.
In other words, these are the very people we’ve been talking about who feel fine but can spread the virus. And their numbers are likely FAR higher than the stats we’re being fed on social media and the news.
So this coronavirus may not have a “moderate” rate of transmission after all. It could be much higher. But you’d only know that if you waded through some really dense, jargon-filled studies.
And remember, the fatality rate is only counting people who died after a known exposure and testing. It’s entirely possible other deaths blamed on pneumonia, flu, and other illnesses are cases of undetected COVID-19.
Dig deeper, and there are even MORE questions that aren’t being answered in the 24/7, wall-to-wall coverage of this crisis. Like the fact that there are at least three people we know of who presumably tested negative and were cleared from quarantine. But then later became ill and tested positive for the virus with no new exposures.
That could mean the virus can hide undetected for some time. In which case, quarantines may not be nearly long enough. Or it may mean there are flaws with the tests. Or human error could have played a part, too.
The bottom line is there’s still so much we DON’T know about COVID-19. And what we don’t know could hurt us if we’re not careful.
But what we DO know is the virus is much more dangerous for seniors and folks who have existing illnesses. We also know the best way to stay healthy is to avoid being around other people who could be carrying it.
And that means that for now, social distancing makes the most sense. Save the beach frolicking and bar hopping for another time.
Update
*UPDATE: A top viral disease expert now says it’s possible that 25 to 50 percent of people who get the virus may show no symptoms, but still could spread the disease.
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